Emmanuel Todd, the French demographer who famously predicted the USSR’s collapse, now warns that the U.S. will be the first Western power to implode. His reasoning? A toxic cocktail of declining fertility rates, rising inequality, and political polarization. But is he right—or just another Euro-pessimist rooting for America’s downfall?
Let’s start with demographics. The U.S. fertility rate has cratered to 1.64 births per woman, far below the replacement level of 2.1. Meanwhile, 40% of American children are born out of wedlock, a trend Todd links to social fragmentation. Compare that to Europe, where family structures remain more stable despite lower birth rates. Todd argues that America’s “hyper-individualism” is eroding its social cohesion, making collapse inevitable.
Economically, the U.S. is a paradox. While GDP grows, the top 1% owns 32% of wealth, and 40% of Americans can’t cover a $400 emergency. Todd sees this as a sign of late-stage decay, akin to Rome before the fall. Political dysfunction only accelerates the decline: 62% of Americans believe democracy is at risk, and trust in institutions has plummeted.
But here’s the twist—Todd’s critics call him a provocateur. The U.S. has faced crises before and emerged stronger. Yet, with China rising and internal divisions deepening, his warning can’t be ignored. Will America collapse? Maybe not tomorrow—but the cracks are undeniable.