Trump’s upcoming 104% tariffs declare a nuclear escalation. This position will force China into a high-stakes retaliation game. Beijing won’t fold, but its moves will be surgical. First, expect agricultural targeting: soybeans, pork, and dairy. In 2018, China’s soybean embargo sent U.S. farm bankruptcies soaring—a replay could cripple Trump’s core rural base in a heartbeat.
Next, rare earths. China controls 80% of global supply. A 2010 embargo against Japan spiked prices 600%. Cutting off U.S. defense and tech firms could paralyze F-35 and iPhone production overnight.
With regards to financial warfare, dumping U.S. Treasuries is too blunt, but stealthy yuan deals with BRICS nations (see Russia’s 2024 gas trades) chip at dollar dominance. Meanwhile, China’s 16-month gold stockpiling signals a hedge against monetary war.
Regulatory chokeholds are guaranteed. Apple relies on China for 20% of revenue—one “security review” could erase 20% of its market cap overnight. Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory? A single “safety inspection” notice would crater Elon’s stock.
Geopolitical ju-jitsu finishes the combo with asymmetric escalation. China’s 2024 gallium export controls already strangled U.S. missile production. What’s Next? Banning graphite for EV batteries, or lithium processing tech? Trump fired tariffs; China can freeze entire industries.