The Trumpian economic strategy hinges on aggressive tariffs to spur domestic industry while betting on lower bond yields to manage debt. Its core premises—that protectionism will revive manufacturing, that austerity won’t trigger unrest, and that rivals won’t retaliate—are dangerously optimistic.
History refutes this approach. The 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs backfired spectacularly, deepening the Great Depression through global trade wars. Today, unilateral tariffs would invite immediate retaliation, destabilizing supply chains and raising consumer costs.
Geopolitically, the strategy misjudges U.S. power. The dollar’s reserve status and alliance networks—not just brute force—underpin American influence. Provocative trade policies risk accelerating de-dollarization and alienating partners. Domestic execution is equally precarious.
The Trump administration’s record of policy chaos undermines confidence in delicate fiscal maneuvers. Austerity without safety nets could ignite unrest amid economic anxiety. This is a reckless wager against history’s lessons. The potential fallout—economic instability, eroded alliances, and a weaker dollar—far outweighs any speculative gains.