The brutal April 22, 2025, terrorist attack in Pahalgam, claiming 26 lives, has ignited a firestorm in the already volatile India-Pakistan relationship. India, pointing fingers at Pakistan-backed militants, has responded with unprecedented severity. Diplomatic ties are downgraded, the Indus Waters Treaty – vital for Pakistan’s agriculture (80% irrigated land) – is suspended, and the Attari border is sealed. Pakistan’s retaliatory closure of its airspace to Indian carriers and threat to abandon the Simla Agreement (the LoC’s foundation since 1972) signal a dangerous escalation.
Military posturing is intensifying. Exchanges of fire along the LoC have become routine since April 24th, and India’s deployment of the INS Vikrant to the Arabian Sea underscores its resolve. While LoC skirmishes are not new (2008, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2019, 2020), the sheer number of civilian casualties and India’s forceful reaction create a uniquely perilous situation.
International calls for calm, including from the UN, appear insufficient. India’s direct accusations and tangible punitive actions against Pakistan make de-escalation exceedingly difficult. The potential collapse of the Simla Agreement could dismantle the very framework maintaining the fragile peace along the 750km LoC. With both nuclear-armed nations locked in a cycle of retaliation, the risk of miscalculation leading to a wider conflict with catastrophic regional consequences looms large.