The European project, fostered by American strategists, now confronts a stark reality: its foundations, long buttressed by American strategic commitment, are showing critical fissures. The assumption of perpetual US support, a cornerstone since 1945, is demonstrably weakening.
Consider the inherent clash between national sovereignty and supranational governance. The Eurozone crisis, though seemingly past, revealed the fundamental incompatibility of a singular monetary policy with diverse fiscal realities. The ECB’s control over interest rates clashes with individual states’ fiscal autonomy, a recipe for destabilizing imbalances. This fragility is compounded by rising nationalism, fueled by immigration anxieties, economic stagnation, and perceived democratic deficits within the EU’s bureaucracy.
Further, the EU’s reliance on American military might, particularly against a resurgent Russia, leaves it perilously exposed. Collective defense spending, substantial but fragmented, would falter without US support. Historical precedent is instructive: the Concert of Europe, forged post-Napoleonic Wars, succumbed to national ambitions. The EU, similarly built on competing interests, is not immune.
EU dissolution, while drastic, is plausible. Trade barriers, a fragmented market, and national currencies would wreak economic chaos. More profoundly, it would shatter decades of peace, potentially reigniting national rivalries. The continent’s stability, and the global order, depend on the EU’s capacity to navigate these dangers. A capacity increasingly questioned.