The recent capture of Aleppo and Hama by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) marks a stunning reversal in the Syrian conflict, dealing a severe blow to Russia and Iran’s strategic interests. This development raises serious questions about the efficacy of their intelligence gathering and the sustainability of their support for the Assad regime.
The speed and decisiveness with which HTS forces seized these key cities exposed the vulnerabilities of the Russian and Iranian-backed Syrian military. It highlights the limitations of their military capabilities and their inability to anticipate and counter the rebel offensive. This failure is particularly embarrassing for Russian intelligence, which is widely regarded as one of the world’s most sophisticated.
The fall of Aleppo and Hama has significantly weakened Assad’s position and brought the collapse of his regime within reach. If HTS manages to capture Homs, it would sever the vital supply line between Damascus and the coastal region, effectively cutting off Assad’s support base. This would likely lead to the regime’s downfall and the end of Russia and Iran’s presence in Syria.
The implications of this development are far-reaching. Whichever scenario follows the current episode of the 13-year-old Syrian civil war will be crucial, not only as a determining factor for the geopolitics of the Middle East and against the axis of resistance, but also as a pivotal factor in the interconnected war in Ukraine. All of these conflicts are part of the ongoing hybrid world war.